The European session is pretty empty on the data front as we will just get low tier releases and the final Eurozone GDP report. The main events will be in the American session as we get the US NFP and the Canadian labour market report.
We will also have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report but the focus will be on the NFP. Last but not least, we have some Fed speakers today delivering their last comments before the blackout period starting tomorrow.
13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada November Labour Market Report
The Canadian
Labour Market report is expected to show 25.0K jobs added in November vs. 14.5K
in October and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 6.6% vs. 6.5% prior. The
BoC is now focused on growth as they met their inflation target.
Following Friday’s
Canadian GDP report, the market increased the probabilities for a
50 bps cut in December to 52%. Better than expected jobs data will likely see
the 25 bps cut getting back in favour.
Canada Unemployment Rate
13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US November Non-Farm Payrolls
The US NFP report
is expected to show 200K jobs added in November vs. 12K in October and the
Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 4.2% vs. 4.1% prior. The Average Hourly
Earnings Y/Y are seen at 3.9% vs. 4.0% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at
0.3% vs. 0.4% prior.
The last report
was negatively impacted by strike activity and hurricanes, so the market just
ignored it, especially since the focus was on the US Presidential Election. The
labour market data throughout November has been positive, so the expectations
going into this NFP report are skewed to the upside.
I don’t see the market repricing the rate cuts expectations further
based on labour market data (barring huge surprises). The main event this month will be the US CPI on
the 11th of December. In my opinion, the Fed is going to cut by 25
bps anyway but revise the dot plot to show just two rate cuts in 2025 (in line
with the market’s pricing) and communicate a pause as they gather more information.
US Unemployment Rate
Central bank speakers:
- 14:15 GMT/09:15 ET – Fed’s Bowman (hawk – voter)
- 15:30 GMT/10:30 ET – Fed’s Goolsbee (dove – non voter)
- 17:00 GMT/12:00 ET – Fed’s Hammack (neutral – voter)
- 18:00 GMT/13:00 ET – Fed’s Daly (neutral – voter)