Gold (XAU/USD) hourly chart
The precious metal is up 0.2% to $2,637 on the day but it doesn’t really indicate much, with the low earlier having dipped to $2,613 for a bit in Asia trading. In any case, price action continues to rest mostly in between $2,620 to $2,655 this week and that reflects a more limited range for gold.
If anything, the price action mimics the push and pull mood in the dollar in general as well. But for gold itself, it points to a lack of conviction over the last two weeks more than anything else.
The December seasonal tailwind is a positive factor for gold buyers to work with. However, they would prefer to have a strong catalyst to work with and that being the kicker rather than it being the main impetus. For now, said catalyst is what is lacking for gold buyers.
As for gold sellers, the continued exhaustion around these levels might be a good thing if it prolongs further. It points to a struggle for buyers to keep the rebound from mid-November off the 100-day moving average. And that key level is now seen at $2,583 currently.
If there is reason to go running towards a test of that, it will be a key one in testing the upside momentum in gold for this year. That considering the remarkable fact that gold has not firmly broken below its 100-day moving average throughout the whole of 2024. The last time that was the case was all the way back in October 2023.
So, there is plenty at stake here on the part of buyers to try and maintain their hold. The US non-farm payrolls data will be the next key risk event now.