This is via a Wall Street Journal interview with Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius. Hatzius has, so far, stuck with his forecast for 3 interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, citing:
- I think a lot of the underlying reasons for disinflation are still intact
- for me, (its) hard to see how we’re reversing this underlying inflation process
- if you listen to Powell during the press conference, that seems to be where he’s coming out as well. And I agree with that.
Summary of Inflation Impacts:
- Hatzius foresees a manageable inflation environment, with continued progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
- While specific risks, such as tariffs, could cause temporary upticks in inflation, underlying economic adjustments (wages, labor market) support a disinflationary trend.
- Sticky price components and seasonal effects will gradually align with overall disinflationary forces, reinforcing the downward trend in inflation
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More detail on his inflation outlook:
From Friday’s (20 December) data:
PCE core yy